Analysis of National Electricity Market (NEM) renewables penetration, wholesale spot prices, and retail electricity costs over time.
Compare trends across three key metrics to understand the relationship between renewable energy adoption and electricity pricing.
Wholesale Prices
Australian Energy Regulator (AER)
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Renewables Share
OpenElectricity API
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Retail CPI
Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS)
⚠️ Manual CSV upload required
Coal Prices
World Bank / FRED (Newcastle thermal coal)
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Gas Prices
World Bank / FRED (LNG Asia)
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On-Grid Renewables % BTM Solar % Wholesale $/MWh Retail CPI (Index Points) Coal $/tonne Gas $/MMBtu
Data Sources & Methodology
Wholesale: AEMO aggregated data (1998-2004) and AER annual volume weighted average prices (2005+), averaged across NEM regions per year. Units: $/MWh.
⚠️ 1998 Note: The National Electricity Market (NEM) commenced on December 13, 1998, with only 2.5 weeks of operational data. South Australia experienced extreme price volatility during this startup period ($380/MWh average), driven by summer heatwave conditions, initial market teething problems, and limited interconnection. This represents a genuine market outcome during NEM inception rather than a data error.
Retail CPI: ABS Electricity Consumer Price Index (Weighted average of eight capital cities, 1980-present). This is a relative price index where a base period is set to 100. The index shows how retail electricity prices have changed over time relative to the base period. For example, an index value of 144.1 means prices are 44.1% higher than the base period. Units: Index points (dimensionless).
On-Grid Renewables: Utility-scale renewable generation (grid-connected wind, solar, hydro, bioenergy) as percentage of total NEM generation. Calculated from total renewables minus behind-the-meter solar. Australian Energy Statistics Table O (1998-2004) and OpenElectricity (2005+). Historical data shows ~8-9% at 2001 MRET introduction, predominantly from hydro. Units: Percentage.
BTM Solar: Behind-the-meter rooftop solar photovoltaic generation as percentage of total NEM generation. This represents distributed, customer-owned solar systems that are not directly visible to the grid operator. Data from OpenElectricity APVI (2005+). BTM solar has grown from near-zero in 2005 to ~10% of total generation by 2025. Units: Percentage.
Coal Prices: World Bank commodity prices via FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data). Australian thermal coal, Newcastle FOB, 6,000 kcal/kg. Annual average of monthly prices. Units: USD per tonne.
Gas Prices: World Bank commodity prices via FRED. LNG Asia (Japan import price), proxy for Australian LNG exports. Annual average of monthly prices. Units: USD per MMBtu.
Timeline Markers: Vertical lines indicate NEM inception and significant national energy policy changes:
1998 (Dec 13): National Electricity Market commenced (orange marker)
2001: Mandatory Renewable Energy Target (MRET) commenced (Howard Government - Liberal)
2009: Expanded Renewable Energy Target (RET) introduced (Rudd Government - Labor)
2012: Carbon pricing mechanism commenced (Gillard Government - Labor)
2014: Carbon price repealed (Abbott Government - Liberal)
2019: Default Market Offer (DMO) introduced to cap retail prices (Morrison Government - Liberal)
2022: Energy price cap introduced in response to price spike (Albanese Government - Labor)
Normalization: Toggle "Normalize" to compare trends on a common scale (first available year = 100). Raw units are preserved otherwise.
Sources: AEMO & AER wholesale prices (1998-2025); ABS Electricity CPI (1980-2025); Australian Energy Statistics & OpenElectricity renewables (1998-2025); OpenElectricity APVI BTM solar (2005-2025); World Bank/FRED coal & gas prices (1990-2025). This is an analytical tool for understanding Australian energy market dynamics from NEM inception through the present.